Week 17-

Week 15              1-2

Season                 32-18(64%)

I've struggled down the stretch this year and have slipped all the way down to 64% against the spread on the season. Still better than most but far from that 70% clip I held for most of the year. Sadly, it's the beginning of the end today. With the consolation being a full slate of games on one day (the only time all season) and an all-inter-divisional-match-up day across the league, a stroke of brilliance on the part of the embattled league offices. It's also a week in which some teams have a ton to play for while others are simply playing out the string but as we already know, those facts generally don't mean much in the NFL because you're always playing for a job and quitting is reserved for only the lowest form of NFL life, AKA the New York Jets. With that, there are some ridiculously gigantic numbers out there today, particularly in Denver and San Francisco, which with teases would be netting you more than 20 points each. Talk about value! While I may be on those games because as a rule, you win money more often than not taking that many points in the NFL, they aren't part of my second round of bonus picks I'm rolling with as we hit the end of the season. For the record, I went 5-1 the last time I did this a few weeks ago.

New Orleans -4 vs Carolina

This is a perfect spot play for a variety of reasons. 1) The Saints are no longer a franchise in flux with Sean Payton locked up as head coach long term. 2) The Saints still have something to prove as they feel the league forced them to play shorthanded for most of the year. 3) The Saints have been a decent team over the past few weeks. 4) The Saints are at home where they play well and where they feel they owe the home crowd for those three losses in the dome earlier in the year. 5) Carolina beat New Orleans earlier in the year. This game has blow-out all over it so the short number at 4 is attractive. Look for Drew Brees to put some numbers up against the Panthers D and New Orleans to get the easy cover.

Philadelphia +7 at NY Giants

Get the 7 while you can, the sharps have been pulling this number down all week (it opened at 9 in some spots). Not only have the Giants seemingly pulled a Jets and quit on the year but even though they mathematically have slim hopes of making the post-season they aren't to be trusted at home, as a favorite, as a big favorite or against the Eagles. Philadelphia is 5-0 straight-up in their last 5 visits to the Meadowlands and Michael Vick has a ton to play for considering this is his last real resume-builder for the other 31 teams in the league which he'll be hoping to play for next year.

Baltimore +3.5 at Cincinnati

This is one of those "nothing to play for" games. The Bengals are locked into the 6th seed in the AFC and while Baltimore could move up to the 3 spot with a win and a New England loss, they'd much prefer to stay in the 4th slot to open against Indianapolis and then make a potential trip to Houston instead of having to host Cincy next week and look at a potential trip to Denver. All that said, the Bengals are coming off a big win at Pittsburgh last week and without getting too nerdy on you, favorites coming off wins against the Steelers the week before don't cover. OK, some do but the numbers overwhelmingly point to going against them and since this is all about the numbers I'll hold my nose and take the over-rated and much-hated Ravens plus the field goal and the hook.

Indianapolis +6.5

Another game in which one team is fixed in their playoff spot while the other is potentially playing for much more. In this case, the latter is Houston who needs to avoid the loss in order to hold on to the number one seed in the AFC. Of course, nowhere is it written that they need to win by 6.5 to accomplish that goal. Indianapolis is at home, a very young team and a team that still feels the need to improve every single week. Add that to the fact that they played Houston tight 2 weeks ago on the road, today marks the emotional return to the sidelines of their head coach in Chuck Pagano and there will be no let-up in Andrew Luck and the Colts. I love them at home plus the points and they could win outright against the floundering Texans.

Green Bay -3

One of the match-ups on the board today which pits two teams who need to win to help themselves. That should make for a good game but I think that there's a bit more than just that as the Packers may have something more to prove considering how Adrian Peterson ran them into the ground in their first meeting. That's the difference in this game. There's no way Green Bay is going to let Peterson anywhere near the NFL's record for rushing yards in a season, they're going to shut down the banged-up running back and as everyone knows, if you shut him down, you beat the Vikings because Christian Ponder just isn't that good. The Packers hold onto their first round bye and the Vikes are scoreboard watching to see if Peterson gets to run another day.

Dallas +3.5 at Washington

The regular season finale and the game which will decide which mediocre NFC East team is one and done in the NFC playoffs. Whoops! Getting a bit ahead of myself there. This is Washington's baby to lose. But Dallas enters as a very hot team and the reason for that is twofold, firstly, they are healthy again with Demarco Murray being the big guy in that department but more importantly, the QB everyone loves to hate, AKA Tony Romo, has been on fire the second half of the season. His TD to pick ratio has been tremendous and I look for this to be a field goal game either way outside of DC tonight so take the 3 plus the hook while you can.

Forced to choose the rest of week 17 I'd roll with...(8-4 last week/90-68-3 {57%} on the year)

Buffalo -3.5

Cleveland +9.5

Tennessee -5.5

Chicago -3

Tampa Bay +3

New England -9.5

Kansas City +17

San Diego -8

San Francisco -16.5

St. Louis +11.5

I'll have my meaningful college bowl picks up here tomorrow by noon.

Enjoy the final week of the regular season!

Thanks.

-P